In the Wake of the Third Wave
Data-driven localised interventions the way to go forward
With the virus on the decline, improved economic indicators and optimistic projections, India entered 2021 on a positive note. However, the arrival of the second wave rendered all of the preparations made to combat the first wave obsolete. Consequently, we are back in the same situation as before. India's principal science adviser, K Vijay Raghavan, said earlier this month that the third Covid wave is "inevitable" [1]. One point that has been apparent since the second wave is that a uniform national outbreak will not occur and that the pandemic will hit in various places at different times in the third wave. While the second wave began in Amravati (Maharashtra) in the first week of February and peaked in the beginning of March, the wave hit cities like Mumbai and Pune situated in the same state in early April with its peak around mid-April. Although the first lockdown and the outbreak were nationwide, the second wave had much more localised and cascading peaks. In the third wave, a similar trend is expected to emerge.
The second wave has highlighted the critical importance of focusing on pandemic preparedness planning. Kiran Mazumdar Shaw (the founder of Biocon Limited) and Amitabh Kant (CEO, NITI Aayog) have also emphasised the need to invest in stockpiling a minimum inventory of vital drugs, medical supplies and streamlining oxygen supply chain to provide buffer time to respond to demand spikes [2][3]. The measures to control the peak are necessary, and authorities have recognised the need to build and maintain infrastructure. Despite this, there will be times when the peak will cause stress, and mechanisms to control them at a much more localised level will be required.
While the honourable Prime Minister has directed the states to implement their policies, the peak has demonstrated that even state-level rules are not uniformly applicable or enforced, making blanket norms obsolete. Regional bodies and community organisations at the municipal and district level are undoubtedly the best for providing local public benefits such as containment of the virus, medical facilities, and vaccination within the region. It is worth noting that the pandemic is now being managed by centralised administrative structures with the assistance of all state governments. Lockdown has been enforced by public servants and armed forces [4]. These structures should eventually give way to autonomous decentralised responsibilities of local bodies such as panchayats and municipalities. Municipal commissioners and collectors at the district and rural levels should be given more power, authority, and control for localised containment, testing, and monitoring. V N Alok (Associate Professor at the Indian Institute of Public Administration) also argues that local councils and communities, who are nearest to people, are better positioned to bring about this transition and instil the importance of social distance on a long-term basis 4. As a result, the position of local councils is very prominent, and the faster the role changes, the better it will be. This would mean that the restrictions are more relevant to the needs on the ground than those issued by state departments, as well as that policies are more localised and effective.
Moreover, the management of the situation in Mumbai and Pune has several lessons for the third wave, and also emphasises the importance of a strong local response. Mumbai’s municipal commissioner Iqbal Chahal, who has been pivotal in Mumbai’s recovery from the second wave, believes ‘decentralised fight is the key’ given the fact that he is clearly in command and deals with a core team of committed people who are open and prompt to react [5]. To not only grasp the natural path of the Covid-19 pandemic, but also to recognise areas of a country or sub-region that need further focus, uniform data collection and real-time data analysis are critical. It is difficult for local governments to analyse and make use of data from the healthcare system during a rapidly spreading epidemic. In this context, Pune city officials through a collaborative and data-driven response to Covid-19 were instrumental in working with data scientists from various organisations to help clarify the Covid-19 data being compiled in the city. Data scientists are consulted by city authorities when there is a spike in cases or to identify realistic solutions to specific problems. This, in turn, became the foundation for the Covid-19 response. Pune district today has the largest number of Covid beds, oxygen beds, and ventilators per million inhabitants in the country [6]. Therefore, it is critical that the use of data-driven localised interventions percolate to various districts and municipalities in the wake of the third wave.
In this second wave, we have lost lives and livelihoods, and while it has been painful for everyone, the determination shown has been impressive. With the danger of a third wave approaching, India must rapidly improve its infrastructure, not just for adults but also for children. Decentralised, collaborative, data-driven, and localised ought to be key words when dealing with the dreadful next wave that will strike the country at various stages. Although the loss of lives and livelihoods is unavoidable, the situation demands hyper-local curbs, proactive interventions, prompt actions, and clear directives to minimise the effect.
- Sahil Deo & Indraneel Chitale
Sahil Deo is a co-founder of CPC Analytics, a data-driven policy consulting firm with offices in Pune and Berlin; Indraneel Chitale is the Managing Partner at Chitale Group, Co-Founder at Herbea and an active investor
[1] https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/india-coronavirus-third-wave-covid-vaccines-oxygen-supply-7322145/[2] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/view-lessons-from-the-second-wave-of-coronavirus-pandemic/articleshow/82185234.cms[3]https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/the-antidote-to-3rd-wave-of-covid-is-combination-of-social-distancing-health-infra-and-massive-vaccination-outreach/articleshow/82661617.cms[4] https://www.financialexpress.com/lifestyle/health/local-governments-must-have-a-key-role-to-fight-covid-19/1977869/[5] https://www.moneylife.in/article/mumbai-model-how-the-city-stayed-a-step-ahead-of-the-coronavirus/63785.html[6] https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/pune/opinion-pune-covid-second-wave-response-lessons-7316013/